The Only Oscar Coverage You Need — 2018 Final Nomination Predictions

Well, it’s been one of the more tumultuous races so far. Last article, I mentioned how odd this year is with no real front runner in many major categories. Well… three months and several precursors have done little to clarify. Sure, we have a better idea of the front runners in most of the acting categories, but Best Picture and Best Director are still very up in the air. This, ladies and gentlemen, is exciting. 

This is usually the point in the race where the Best Picture starts to become clear (if it hasn’t been since September) as critics groups and guilds start dolling out their awards. This year, however, the love has been far and widely spread. Get OutLady BirdThe Shape of Water and Three Billboards have all been winning awards left and right. The Golden Globes threw their hat in the Three Billboards camp giving it four major awards, but the very next day the Critics Choice named The Shape of Water its pick for the best of the year. The Producer’s Guild was the next to weigh in also naming The Shape of Water as best picture. This would be enough to make it the outright front runner if it weren’t for one little fact; Every Best Picture winner since Braveheart has at least been nominated for the SAG ensemble award. The Shape of Water was not. What’s more, when SAG announced their winners last night, it was Three Billboards that took the prize, further bolstering it’s status. And while this may look like it’s a two horse race, I don’t think it’s that simple. The Academy votes for the Best Picture category with a preferential ballot, listing their picks from favorite to least favorite. Thus, the eventual Best Picture winner needs to not only have a slew of number one votes, but also number two and three votes as well. This system was what likely lead to Moonlight being chosen over La La Land last year. La La Land likely got more number one votes, but it was Moonlight‘s overall appeal that lead to it receiving more of the secondary and tertiary votes securing its victory. While both Three Billboards and The Shape of Water are clearly loved in the industry, they both have their vehement critics as well. Lady Bird and Get Out are both pretty universally adored and while they don’t look like traditional Best Picture winners at first glance, their power and potency has only grown since their respective debuts. At this point it’s still a guessing game, but we can start putting the pieces together with the guilds that have already been announced and with nominations tomorrow. To get a better idea at what real Oscar voters are thinking, we look at the slew of guild nominees that have been trickling out since the beginning of the year. Here is a summary of all of them and the weight they have on the Oscar:

  • Golden Globes (GG): Possibly the most well known precursor to the Oscars. This can be misleading, because The Hollywood Foreign Press who nominate for the Golden Globes have no voter overlap with the Academy. Similarity inevitably crops up every year, however.
  • British Academy of Film and Television (BAFTA): The BAFTAs are the British equivalent to the Oscars. They have many of the same categories and often share many of the same nominees. There is also a roughly 500 person voter overlap, so they can be a good indicator of support in the industry.
  • Producer’s Guild of America (PGA): The producers vote overlaps with the best picture category at the Oscars. Their ten nominees often mirror very closely with eventual Oscar nominees for best picture.
  • Director’s Guild of America (DGA): The directors nominate five of their own each year. Of these five, at least four are usually nominated in the corresponding Oscar category.
  • Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG): The actors are the biggest group in the academy. Their best ensemble previews respect for the film overall. Their acting nominees usually line up very closely as well.
  • Writer’s Guild of America (WGA): The writer’s guild disqualifies many scripts every year so their nominees and winners often look different from Oscars’, but it is still a good tell of the amount of support a film has within the industry.
  • American Film Institute (AFI): One of the only major precursors whose nominees are chosen by critics. They release a top ten every year that is one of the first indications of what could be on the best picture shortlist.
  • America Cinema Editors (ACE): The highest recognition for editors and the best precursor for the best editing Oscar.
  • Cinema Audio Society (CAS): Awards recognizing the best in cinematic sound. Best sound mixing and best sound editing are the Oscar equivalent categories.
  • The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC): Recognizing the best of the year in cinematography. The best cinematography Oscar is the equivalent.
  • Costume Designers Guild (CDGA): This guild recognition correlates directly with the best costume Oscar.
  • Art Director Guild (ADG): This guild’s Oscar equivalent is the best production design category.

Here’s the state of the race:

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Best Picture

1. The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, PGA🏆, DGA✅, SAG❌, WGA✅, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS✅, ASC✅, CDGA✅, ADG✅

While no film fits comfortably into the frontrunner role at this point in the race, The Shape of Water is likely closest. It won the Producer’s Guild which is the only other organization that uses the preferential ballot like the Oscar. It dominated the Critics Choice awards which, while not having any overlap with the Oscars themselves, show great support outside the industry as well. Due to the craft at hand on all levels (cinematography, production design, music, etc.), The Shape of Water will almost inevitably wind up with the most nominations tomorrow. Director Guillermo del Toro already won best director at the Critic’s Choice and Golden Globes, giving an impassioned speech at the latter that could certainly help him up to the Oscar platform. But even if he wins Best Director, does the film have enough support to take Best Picture? It would be the first since Braveheart to win without a SAG ensemble nomination. Can it still claim victory?

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, PGA✅, DGA✅, SAG🏆, WGA⚠️, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA✅, ADG✅

Three Billboards has a lot of passion behind it. Two of its actors are the frontrunners in their respective categories, and it could be considered a frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay too since it claimed that prize at the Golden Globes and won’t contend for the WGA (it was deemed ineligible, several are every year). It won the Toronto Audience award which several of recent years’ Best Picture winners also have under their belt. On paper, this one looks really good. But there are a significant number of people (myself included) who would feel very disappointed if this won. Personally I’d prefer literally any other movie on this list. Last year the Academy meshed with my sensibilities giving my favorite film of the year their Best Picture prize for the first time since 2004. I suppose it’s too much to ask for that to continue.

3. Lady Bird

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA❌, PGA✅, DGA✅, SAG✅, WGA✅, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA✅, ADG✅ 

If there’s a Moonlight this year, it’s Lady Bird. It’s a small film with a strong point of view and a beautiful voice. It has impassioned support inside and outside the industry. It is (hopefully) the frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay and has made its director, Greta Gerwig, only the 9th woman ever to be recognized by the DGA. If any film will benefit from the preferential ballot, it’s likely the delightful Lady Bird. Don’t count it out.

4. Get Out

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, PGA✅, DGA✅, SAG✅, WGA✅, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA✅, ADG✅

For a while, this seemed unlikely. What thriller released in January by a first time director would go on to become a major Oscar contender? Well, to be frank, this one. Get Out was the first great movie we saw this year, and it maintained in the upper echelon throughout. It is the brilliant brain child of writer/director Jordan Peele. While this nomination looks likely, what will really be remarkable is if the director’s branch rightly nominates Peele, making him only the fourth ever black man to receive that honor.

5. Dunkirk

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, PGA✅, DGA✅, SAG❌, WGA❌, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS✅, ASC✅, CDGA✅, ADG✅

While Dunkirk has fallen down the list quite a bit in recent months, it’s still all but assured a nomination tomorrow. It’s an incredible feat of film making that will likely result in a good stock of nominations, even if it doesn’t take a slew home.

6. Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, PGA✅, DGA❌, SAG❌, WGA✅, AFI✅, ACE❌, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA❌, ADG❌

Call Me by Your Name is absolutely one of the best films of the year. If the Academy really wanted to follow Moonlight‘s win with one of the same potency, Call Me By Your Name  would be a great pick, and not because both deal with homosexuality. They’re both incredibly wise and passionate tales about the power love has over us. 

7. The Post

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, PGA✅, DGA❌, SAG❌, WGA❌, AFI✅, ACE✅, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA❌, ADG✅

Well The Post wasn’t quite the event we all hyped it up to be. It wasn’t a revelatory entry into film canon, but it was a very well directed, written and acted piece of history. As such it deserves to be among the nominees tomorrow morning, but don’t expect it to claim an trophies for itself. 

8. I, Tonya

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, PGA✅, DGA❌, SAG❌, WGA✅, AFI❌, ACE✅, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA✅, ADG❌

This looked like less of a sure thing before the PGA and WGA rightly recognized it, but currently I, Tonya looks to have the steam to make it in. I’m glad because it’s an exceptional film with a pair of incredible performances at its core. It may not have a chance to win, but it definitely deserves the nom.

9. Mudbound

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, PGA❌, DGA❌, SAG✅, WGA✅, AFI❌, ACE❌, CAS❌, ASC✅, CDGA❌, ADG❌

This is where it starts getting tricky. Since the Academy has expanded the Best Picture category, we don’t know how many nominees we will have. Every year except two, however we’ve had nine nominees. Those other two years, we’ve had eight. If they cap out at eight, then these are likely the movies that will be left in the cold. I mentioned in my last article that Mudbound‘s performance in this race is going to have a lot to do with how good of a campaign Netflix runs having dropped the ball with Beasts of No Nation a few years ago. They’ve done a better job here, with Mudbound getting into a couple of the guilds. The biggest achievement of the film so far is getting cinematographer Rachel Morrison an ASC nomination– the first woman ever nominated by the organization. Oscar has never nominated a woman cinematographer either so even if Mudboud misses out on a Picture nomination, it can still make history.

10. The Florida Project

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, PGA❌, DGA❌, SAG❌, WGA❌, AFI✅, ACE❌, CAS❌, ASC❌, CDGA❌, ADG❌

The Florida Project is one of the most beloved films of the year that didn’t really catch fire with any of the guilds. This could be that many didn’t see it before nomination time, or perhaps they just didn’t prefer it. Even so, as unlikely as a Best Picture nomination is for The Florida Project, it would be wholly deserved.

Other Contenders: The Big Sick, Molly’s Game, Wonder Woman

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Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, DGA✅

His beautiful and impassioned speech at the Globes only helps his case here. His film has won Critics Choice and PGA. If he wins DGA he has this in the bag. His only real competition at this point is Nolan who slips further and further behind each day. It looks as if my fantasy of del Toro joining his Tres Amigos with a Best Director Oscar actually may come true.

2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, DGA✅

It seemed so obvious that it was Nolan’s year this year. And by that I mean he made a war movie! Who knows, he could totally still win. If he takes DGA, watch out! But likely he’ll just have to settle for his first nomination, which can’t taste that sour after being overlooked for all these years. 

3. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, DGA✅

He’s another sure thing here as his movie is one of the frontrunners. While I’m not as keen on this movie as I am on many others, McDonagh’s In Bruges is one of my favorite movies and I’m very happy to see him being recognized in this way. Could he win? Unlikely over the two juggernauts above him, but he still may not walk away empty handed.

4. Jordan Peele – Get Out

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, DGA✅

It was starting to look like it wasn’t going to happen but with a DGA nomination solidly under his belt he’s only one step away from Oscars. As I mentioned before he would only be the fourth black director ever nominated which shouldn’t undercut just how deserving he is.

5. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, DGA✅

It’s been a groundbreaking year for women directors. Not only did Patty Jenkins knock Wonder Woman out of the park, but there were a number of great films directed by great female artists. It would be flat out blind not to recognize one of them alongside their male counterparts, and Greta is the best opportunity to do so. Luckily the DGA saw this and nominated her, making her only the ninth woman ever, but Oscar’s stats are worse. She would be only the fifth ever recognized. Lets hope she is.

6. Steven Spielberg – The Post

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, DGA❌

If she’s not, however, there’s always more deserving white dudes. He’s one! I mean it’s Spielberg, he’s always deserving. (Except for War Horse of course.)

7. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA✅, DGA❌

Most of the cast who talk about the extraordinary experience filming Call Me by Your Name credit that to director Luca Guadagnino. He created this incredible resonating movie that comes off the screen to inhabit the audience. He did so without flashy tricks, however, so don’t expect recognition to follow.

8. Dee Rees – Mudbound

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, DGA❌

Another incredible opportunity to recognize a groundbreaking female director. She crafted a complex, beautiful film that many are raving over. It’s unlikely the Academy is about to nominate their first black female director, but they really should. She’s just as deserving as any of the others.

 Other Contenders: Sean Baker – The Florida Project, Denis Villenueve – Blade Runner 2049

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Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, SAG🏆

Might as well chisel his name on it already. This race is over.

2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

He’s won many critics choice awards and has been raved about, but should just be happy with the nomination.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG❌

The Meryl Streep of dudes. He would probably get in even if this wasn’t his last performance. Since it is, his nomination is all but an inevitability.

4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

This was a pleasant surprise. Though was wasn’t very high on most prognosticator’s radars, Daniel Kaluuya scored nominations from all three major precursors. Unless something shocking happens, he may actually be an Academy Award nominee this time tomorrow.

5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

This last spot is hard. It’s been an uncharacteristically weak year for actors. Denzel’s a safe bet here as he got in at the SAG and the Globes. He won’t win but he’s always deserving of another nom.

6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

Franco was my original pick to round out the top five, as he got a SAG nom and won the Globe. But then his sexual harassment accusations hit right in the middle of voting. As great as his performance as Tommy Wiseau was, I doubt it can weather that storm.

7. Tom Hanks – The Post

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG❌

Tom Hanks has become, oddly, under-appreciated. Despite winning back-to-back Best Actor trophies in the nineties, he hasn’t been nominated since 2001. And he’s given no shortage of great performances in that time. In 2013 alone, many people thought he could get nominated for both Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks but he came up empty handed. Likely he’ll find himself empty handed again this year.

Other Contenders: Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger, Christian Bale – Hostiles

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Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, SAG🏆

Your frontrunner, ladies and gentlemen. If there were any doubts prior to this, they were quashed with her SAG victory last night. While I would love to see someone who doesn’t already have an Oscar win this year (McDormand won for Fargo), it’s undeniable the power and depth of her performance here. The only thing that can possibly get in her way now is the comment she made last night in her speech about honoring some of the younger ladies in the category, but still I think it’s hers.

2. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

Sally Hawkins gave two great performances this year. One as a mute cleaning woman and another as a crippled artist. She’ll undoubtably receive her second nomination for the former, but it would still be nice if she won. She deserves it for one scene alone.

3. Soairse Ronan – Lady Bird

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

The incomparable Soairse Ronan will deservedly receive the third Oscar nomination of her 23 year old life. She’s a force of nature and while she likely won’t win this one, it’s only a matter of time.

4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

While it was suspected that Margot Robbie had this inside her, it was still nothing but revelatory watching it come out. She played Tonya Harding from 15-47 and handles each age with aplomb. What’s more she really makes you feel for Tonya. It’s a remarkable performance and wholly deserving of her first nomination.

5. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

Like with Actor, this last spot is hard. Not because there aren’t enough compelling candidates, but because there are too many. I went with Chastain because she got all the precursors and she was fantastic in Molly’s Game but it could easy go to someone else.

6. Meryl Streep – The Post

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG❌

Will Madam Streep earn her 21st nomination? Never bet against Meryl. Never.

7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

Dame Judi Dench is a living queen and everything she does deserves awards. That being said, this film was put out by the Weinstein Company and that fact alone may be enough to leave her off the ballot. We shall see.

Other Contenders: Annette Benning – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, Diane Kruger – In the Fade

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Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

Dude’s winning. Game. Set. Match. Make your bets.

2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

The once presumed frontrunner is certainly getting a nomination but it would be a shock if he won at this point. Sill, any notice for The Florida Project is good.

3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

Jenkins is all but assured his second nomination amid the slew The Shape of Water will receive.

4. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

Has one of the best parts of the film, and is being continually cited. That being said, this is where I stop being confident about Best Supporting Actor. These last two spots could be very different. But Woody is always deserving and people really respond to his character.

5. Steve Carrell – Battle of the Sexes

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

Battle of the Sexes has all but been forgotten in basically every race except this one. Steve Carell surprised not only with a Golden Globe nomination but also with a SAG. He’s a respected actor and he’s great in the role, but can he beat out the boys from Call Me By Your Name?

6. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG❌

He’s the other half of the most beloved couple of the year, but as the story is firmly Elio’s (and therfore Chalamet’s), Hammer has less to do. If CMBYN hits hard, expect him to get his first Oscar nomination. 

7. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, SAG❌

While he hasn’t been cited by any of the precursors, if there’s a surprise in this category I’m crossing my fingers for Stuhlbarg. Aside from being in literally three of the films likely nominated for Best Picture, he really shines in this. His monologue towards the end is one for the ages. 

Other Contenders: Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World, Idris Elba – Molly’s Game

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Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA✅, SAG🏆

Race is over. The race was over when I heard she was going to be in this movie. But now the race is actually over.

2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG✅

There was a time when I thought she may overtake Janney in the end, but it looks like she’ll just have to settle for her first nomination. 

3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

As it stands, she’s the only nominee from Mudbound getting in. Will she actually make it? Idris Elba was in a similar position when he, and the film as a whole, was snubbed a couple years ago. Could we see a Mudbound-less morning tomorrow? I hope not, but we’ll see…

4. Hong Chau – Downsizing

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

To be honest, Hong Chau is probably the most vulnerable here, but only because her film is the weakest. Most people didn’t love Downsizing outside of her and while she did surprise with both a Globe and SAG nomination, she could easily be left off. But I hope she’s not. Ngoc Lan as played by Chau is one of the most interesting and beautiful characters of the year and I’d love to see her among the nominees.

5. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, SAG❌

Octavia Spencer actually made history last year by becoming the first black woman every to win an Oscar who was also nominated a second time. This year she would make history again. With The Shape of Water looking as strong as it does, there’s a good chance she’ll be swept in too.

6. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick

Holly Hunter as "Beth" in THE BIG SICK. Photo by Nicole Rivelli.

Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, SAG✅

Holly Hunter has been a factor in this race since The Big Sick debut at Sundance over a year ago and she could still find herself with a nomination tomorrow morning. All she needs is for one of these other ladies to fall.

Other Contenders: Leslie Mannville – Phantom Thread

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Best Adapted Screenplay

1. James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

Expect this screenplay not only to get nominated, but to win the award. All the competition is in the Original Category this year. That being said, CMBYN absolutely deserves the honor.

2. Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

Sorkin is a previous winner for his incredible The Social Network script. He was nearly a nominee again for Steve Jobs, but the Academy thought better (deservedly, in my opinion). This script, however, is incredible. Maybe his best. And he definitely deserves his nomination this time.

3. Dee Rees & Virgil Williams – Mudbound

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, WGA✅

She may not get in for Director, but she should here.

4. Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, WGA✅

Uh oh, will the Jame Franco scandal hurt the movie’s chances everywhere? I guess we’ll see…

5. Lee Hall and Shrabani Basu – Victoria and Abdul

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, WGA⚠️

Likewise, how far will people go to show they don’t support Harvey Weinstein anymore…?

6. James Mangold, Scott Frank, & Michael Green – Logan

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, WGA✅

This was a huge, but delightful surprise from the WGA. It probably only made the cut because of the numerous scripts they deemed ineligible but still. It’s good to see Logan get some deserved love.

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Best Original Screenplay

1. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

This may be the hottest category in the race. Gerwig vs. Peele vs. McDonagh. Three very different screenplays that all evoke passion in their own way. I’m giving the edge to Gerwig for the time being because it seems like the perfect category to reward Lady Bird but it could go several different ways.

2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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Major Nominations: GG🏆, BAFTA❌, WGA⚠️

Three Billboards already won the GG and it won’t compete against the others to the Oscar Ceremony as it’s ineligible for WGA and didn’t get in at the BAFTAs. It could easily surprise a la Django Unchained. Look out.

3. Jordan Peele – Get Out

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

Now onto the third screenplay in this category that could legitimately win, Jordan Peele essentially invented a new genre to tell his story of white folks snatching black bodies. His singular vision and fantastic execution has resulted in a new classic. This is the perfect place to reward his craft.

4. Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

And now the fourth film in this category that could legitimately win, our current best picture frontrunner, The Shape of Water. It would have to overcome some heavy competition, but it could claim this prize as well.

5. Steven Rogers – I, Tonya

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA✅, WGA✅

Arguably the best thing about this great film is its razor sharp screenplay. Due to the uncharacteristically heavy competition, it doesn’t look likely to win, but it certainly has a chance at a nomination.

6. Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon – The Big Sick

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Major Nominations: GG❌, BAFTA❌, WGA✅

Another totally fantastic screenplay that could get edged out of a nomination by the sheer strength of the category. If it gets in though, it would be a delight.

7. Liz Hannah and Josh Sanger – The Post

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Major Nominations: GG✅, BAFTA❌, WGA❌

If this film was in another category, it could win. This year, however, in this category it likely won’t even get in. Great screenplay though.

Other Contenders: Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch – The Florida Project, Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

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Nominations will be announced tomorrow morning starting at 5:22a.m. The Oscars themselves will be held the evening of Sunday, March 4th, 2018. 

Let me know what you think of my guesses.

Author: Radcliff Weir, @redcliffs46

 

 

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